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Trader Talk: An Analysis of the Markets this Morning

Good morning,

Markets are called to open lower this morning as tensions over Ukraine intensified.

Ukraine and Russia – Today is a crucial day for the markets as traders decide how to react to the escalating political stand-off in Ukraine. If investors fear that the situation could tip into a full-blown Cold War-like conflict, this could result a much wider sell-off for emerging market assets.

Europe – Euro-region economic reports in the past month turned out reassuring enough to convince most economists that Mario Draghi doesn’t need to cut interest rates this week. With data on growth, inflation and economic sentiment all exceeding estimates, we are of the opinion that the ECB will not reduce the benchmark rate from the current record-low 0.25%. Policy makers announce their decision in Frankfurt on March 6.

VIX – Options tied to gains in the benchmark gauge for American stock volatility reached the highest prices in six years last week, reflecting bets that the calm prevailing in equities for the last year won’t last.

Stock to watch: easyJet (Calamatta Cuschieri’s 12-month price target 2050p)

EasyJet flies to airports people want to fly to; its principal competitors at these primary airports are the legacy carriers and charter airlines. EasyJet has managed to increase sales year-on-year by at least 10% since 2007. This has often been translated into double digit earnings per share increases.

We start with our 1yr price target of 2050p based on the assumption of sales growth of 13.1% in 2014, 13.0% in 2014 and 10.0% in 2015. The price target is calculated using an Earnings Based Model with a forward PE of 17x and an Equity Risk Premium of 8.0%.

To get a copy of our full report on easyJet, call our offices on 25688688 or log into webtrader.

Companies in Europe reporting results today:

• Amlin (AML LN) 8am

• Bank of Ireland (BKIR ID) TBD

• Intertek (ITRK LN) 8am

• Ultra Electronics (ULE LN) 8am

• Kuehne + Nagel (KNIN VX) TBD

• Neopost (NEO FP) aftermkt

Good day and happy trading!

Kristian Camenzuli

The Calamatta Cuschieri Traders Blog is available daily on CC WebTrader. Other market coverage including coverage of the International Bond Markets is also available.

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