To say that 2020 has been an eventful year for equity markets is somewhat of an understatement. November, with its own fair share of key developments has managed to lock in record monthly returns for equity markets. European equities, recorded their best monthly performance for the year, and across the Atlantic, US equities recorded their second highest performance since April, up by around 18% and 11% respectively.
Despite that European equity markets outperformed the US peers on a monthly basis, European equities still lag behind since the start of the year. The US S&P 500 Index, which broadly represents the performance of the US largest companies managed to close the month at an all-time high, with a gain of around 12% since the start of the year, compared to a 6.8% year-to-date decline across the European Equity benchmark, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index.
The November equity market rally followed the risk off sentiment towards the end of October, which was weighed down by US election uncertainty and the renewal of covid-19 restrictions, particularly in Europe. Equity markets managed to more than fully recover from October lows, as market sentiment was boosted by the US election outcome and the discovery of a covid-19 vaccine. Over the month, three separate clinical trials released key safety and efficacy results relating to the phase three trial of their covid-19 vaccine development cycle. Pfizer and BioNTech, which were the first vaccine developers to announce the vaccine efficacy milestone were shortly followed by Moderna and Astrazeneca in its joint effort with Oxford University.
The current economic crisis is unlike previous recessions in one particular way: that it is driven by a public health crisis. The need to control the spread of the covid-19 pandemic has triggered economic restrictions that have stalled global economic output. Therefore, the news of effective covid-19 vaccines paves the path to start vaccination process, most importantly health care workers and the most vulnerable people of the population. This in turn will allow economic restrictions to be lifted. In fact, early indications show that regulatory approvals are expected to be granted before the end of the year, as the covid-19 vaccine development cycle continues to progress at a rapid pace.
From an investment perspective, the vaccine discovery acts a key growth catalyst to the economic outlook, which together with low inflation expectations and loose monetary and fiscal policies supports an equity market recovery. November’s vaccine rally, underpinned by higher prospects of a broad-based economic recovery returned a positive performance across all sectors.
Nonetheless, sector selection mattered. The vaccine discovery triggered a cyclical rotation into value stocks, where valuation discrepancies stood at extreme levels. In European equity markets, sectors closely tied to the economic cycle, particularly financials and energy surged around 25% and 34%, respectively. This implies that investments in the European energy sector returned more than double the return of the broad European market index.
Similarly, in the US, the financials, energy, industrials and materials sector also outperformed the general market index. Meanwhile, investors rotated out of the more defensive sectors, including consumers staples, health care and utilities, which although traded higher, underperformed on a relative basis.
From an industry perspective, banks, oil and gas companies and auto companies benefitted the most from the vaccine rally, as the prospects for a stronger rebound in earnings in the coming months was priced in.
This article was written by Rachel Meilak, CFA, Equity Analyst at Calamatta Cuschieri. The article is issued by Calamatta Cuschieri Investment Services Ltd which is licensed to conduct investment services business under the Investments Services Act by the MFSA and is also registered as a Tied Insurance Intermediary under the Insurance Distribution Act 2018.
For more information visit https://cc.com.mt/ The information, view and opinions provided in this article are being provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice concerning particular investments or investment decisions, or tax or legal advice.
The Calamatta Cuschieri Traders Blog is available daily on CC WebTrader. Other market coverage including coverage of the International Bond Markets is also available.
The information provided on this website is being provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice concerning particular investments or investment decisions, or tax or legal advice. Similarly any views or opinions expressed on this website are not intended and should not be construed as being investment, tax or legal advice or recommendations. Investment advice should always be based on the particular circumstances of the person to whom it is directed, which circumstances have not been taken into consideration by the persons expressing the views or opinions appearing on this website. Calamatta Cuschieri & Co. Ltd. (CC) has not verified and consequently neither warrants the accuracy nor the veracity of any information, views or opinions appearing on this website. You should always take professional investment advice in connection with, or independently research and verify, any information that you find or views or opinions which you read on our website and wish to rely upon, whether for the purpose of making an investment decision or otherwise. CC does not accept liability for losses suffered by persons as a result of information, views or opinions appearing on this website.
This website is owned and operated by Calamatta Cuschieri & Co. Ltd (Co. Reg. No. C13729) of 5th Floor, Valletta Buildings, South Street, Valletta VLT 1103, Malta. CC is licensed to conduct Investment Services in Malta by the Malta Financial Services Authority.