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GDP, Wages, Inflation and Growth

06744 CC Trader Talk V2

The Week Ahead

The focus next week is on economic growth and price trends for major economies, with a number of countries releasing third quarter GDP figures as well as inflation data. Meanwhile, UK wage and inflation statistics will be key data releases for guidance on Bank of England policy. UK investors are also expecting half year earnings from Vodafone and REITs British Land and Land Securities. In the US consumer resilience will be assessed through updated retail sales data. Moreover, Earnings season in the US is all but over, but we have Cisco still to come. Other key data highlights include Chinese fixed investment, retail sales and factory output.

Europe and GDP

October’s Price Manager Index Indicated a solid Eurozone growth spurt at the start of the fourth quarter, alongside higher inflationary pressure. This now has to be backed up by the official data to confirm the positive developments. For this reason the Euro area third quarter GDP and inflation data for October will be closely monitored. Germany and Italy will be releasing their third quarter GDP figures.

United Kingdom and Wages

The UK inflation is widely expected to break the 3% level in October, meaning Bank of England governor Mark Carney will needs to give an explanation. However weaker growth of input costs indicated by October PMI surveys suggests that some pressure may soon come off selling price inflation. Official wage data will also be released, providing a key indicator of any likely future rate hikes, with further policy tightening contingent on signs that inflation is feeding through to higher pay.

United States and Inflation

The US will look to updated data on inflation and retail sale gauge price pressures and the resilience of the consumer. There are indications of a drop in inflationary pressures since hurricane-related surges seen in September. PMI surveys showed inflationary pressures eased at the start of the fourth quarter.

Japan and the Growth Momentum

Recent PMI data indicated that the Japanese economy lost some growth momentum in the three months ending September, although the latest survey signalled a strong start to the closing quarter of 2017. Important data releases for Japan are the publication of GDP figures, the industrial production and producer inflation.

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